Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Huadian Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (601226.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.79 - $1.14$0.96
Multi-Stage$1.09 - $1.19$1.14
Blended Fair Value$1.05
Current Price$7.18
Upside-85.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.67%-3.06%0.030.110.090.040.040.030.030.020.120.15
YoY Growth---75.14%14.27%164.93%-16.26%24.90%26.59%44.70%-84.53%-19.55%308.71%
Dividend Yield--0.41%1.77%1.19%0.60%1.00%0.89%0.46%0.37%1.53%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.5315.969.57
Cash Retained (M)127.46127.46127.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.53-15.96-9.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)101.93111.50117.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,164.791,164.791,164.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-1.00%0.00%1.00%
Fair Value$0.79$0.96$1.14
Upside / Downside-89.00%-86.63%-84.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.64127.64127.64127.64127.64127.63131.46
Payout Ratio0.15%18.12%36.09%54.06%72.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.1923.1246.0669.0091.94114.87121.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-1.00%0.00%1.00%
Year 1 PV (M)20.8221.0321.24
Year 2 PV (M)37.3238.0838.84
Year 3 PV (M)50.3251.8653.43
Year 4 PV (M)60.3562.8365.38
Year 5 PV (M)67.8771.3775.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,028.601,081.611,136.78
Equity Value (M)1,265.281,326.771,390.68
Shares Outstanding (M)1,164.791,164.791,164.79
Fair Value$1.09$1.14$1.19
Upside / Downside-84.87%-84.14%-83.37%

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