Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu JIXIN Wind Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (601218.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.57 - $0.78$0.68
Multi-Stage$0.95 - $1.05$1.00
Blended Fair Value$0.84
Current Price$5.61
Upside-85.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.84%8.52%0.110.040.060.220.050.060.050.000.050.07
YoY Growth--157.98%-28.99%-71.85%305.02%-8.48%20.10%0.00%-100.00%-38.34%44.76%
Dividend Yield--3.60%1.37%1.56%4.10%1.24%2.17%1.59%0.00%0.86%1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.6413.528.11
Cash Retained (M)94.9094.9094.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.64-13.52-8.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.2681.3886.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)970.54970.54970.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate-4.95%-3.95%-2.95%
Fair Value$0.57$0.68$0.78
Upside / Downside-89.79%-87.90%-86.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108.18103.9299.8295.8892.1088.4691.12
Payout Ratio12.28%27.82%43.37%58.91%74.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.2928.9143.2956.4868.5779.6284.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate-4.95%-3.95%-2.95%
Year 1 PV (M)26.0526.3226.59
Year 2 PV (M)35.1235.8736.62
Year 3 PV (M)41.2842.6043.94
Year 4 PV (M)45.1447.0749.07
Year 5 PV (M)47.2249.7552.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)728.61767.75808.55
Equity Value (M)923.42969.361,017.17
Shares Outstanding (M)970.54970.54970.54
Fair Value$0.95$1.00$1.05
Upside / Downside-83.04%-82.20%-81.32%

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