Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.,Ltd. (600988.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.19 - $45.50$32.84
Multi-Stage$18.39 - $20.08$19.22
Blended Fair Value$26.03
Current Price$29.58
Upside-12.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.60%28.30%0.150.080.070.010.040.040.050.030.020.02
YoY Growth--82.27%11.40%1,032.55%-82.70%-8.13%-8.97%67.40%13.36%18.81%61.12%
Dividend Yield--0.66%0.48%0.41%0.04%0.26%0.49%1.01%0.43%0.33%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,717.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)387.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,329.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)543.43339.64203.79
Cash Retained (M)2,329.672,329.672,329.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-543.43-339.64-203.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,786.241,990.032,125.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,771.581,771.581,771.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.121.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.121.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.231.341.42
WACC / Discount Rate10.85%10.85%10.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.19$32.84$45.50
Upside / Downside-18.23%11.04%53.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,717.162,893.773,081.873,282.193,495.533,722.743,834.42
Payout Ratio14.26%29.41%44.56%59.70%74.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)387.48851.011,373.171,959.612,616.483,350.473,546.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.85%10.85%10.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)760.50767.71774.91
Year 2 PV (M)1,096.591,117.481,138.56
Year 3 PV (M)1,398.461,438.611,479.51
Year 4 PV (M)1,668.631,732.801,798.81
Year 5 PV (M)1,909.452,001.682,097.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,744.6326,988.1028,279.17
Equity Value (M)32,578.2734,046.3835,568.41
Shares Outstanding (M)1,771.581,771.581,771.58
Fair Value$18.39$19.22$20.08
Upside / Downside-37.83%-35.03%-32.13%

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