Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SDIC Zhonglu Fruit Juice Co.,Ltd. (600962.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.35 - $15.77$8.44
Multi-Stage$6.31 - $6.92$6.61
Blended Fair Value$7.53
Current Price$21.44
Upside-64.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.82%-4.87%0.110.140.140.120.130.120.090.040.080.18
YoY Growth---24.89%-1.90%17.43%-6.53%7.15%40.39%114.94%-51.19%-55.15%5.98%
Dividend Yield--0.83%1.42%0.97%1.24%1.78%1.53%0.88%0.31%0.48%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.387.124.27
Cash Retained (M)39.8139.8139.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.38-7.12-4.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.4332.7035.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)262.23262.23262.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.11%6.11%6.11%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Fair Value$5.35$8.44$15.77
Upside / Downside-75.03%-60.61%-26.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.9259.0761.3063.6266.0268.5270.57
Payout Ratio30.06%42.05%54.04%66.02%78.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.1124.8433.1342.0051.5161.6765.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.11%6.11%6.11%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Year 1 PV (M)23.1823.4123.63
Year 2 PV (M)28.8629.4229.99
Year 3 PV (M)34.1535.1636.18
Year 4 PV (M)39.0840.6342.21
Year 5 PV (M)43.6745.8448.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,485.381,559.061,635.64
Equity Value (M)1,654.321,733.501,815.74
Shares Outstanding (M)262.23262.23262.23
Fair Value$6.31$6.61$6.92
Upside / Downside-70.57%-69.17%-67.70%

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