Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development Co., Ltd. (600895.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.33 - $135.95$127.39
Multi-Stage$30.81 - $33.78$32.27
Blended Fair Value$79.83
Current Price$54.95
Upside45.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.31%6.96%0.780.160.530.360.360.320.280.360.290.29
YoY Growth--394.30%-70.24%49.37%-2.02%12.32%15.58%-22.91%26.75%-2.61%-26.31%
Dividend Yield--3.14%0.78%3.22%2.59%2.17%2.66%1.20%2.69%1.66%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,087.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)721.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)366.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)217.60136.0081.60
Cash Retained (M)366.06366.06366.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-217.60-136.00-81.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)148.47230.06284.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,570.491,570.491,570.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Fair Value$50.33$127.39$135.95
Upside / Downside-8.41%131.83%147.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,087.981,143.211,201.251,262.231,326.311,393.641,435.45
Payout Ratio66.35%71.08%75.81%80.54%85.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)721.91812.63910.691,016.621,130.961,254.281,327.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Year 1 PV (M)764.94772.29779.64
Year 2 PV (M)806.95822.53838.26
Year 3 PV (M)847.95872.63897.78
Year 4 PV (M)887.96922.59958.21
Year 5 PV (M)927.00972.401,019.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,149.0746,311.2148,557.24
Equity Value (M)48,383.8850,673.6553,050.69
Shares Outstanding (M)1,570.491,570.491,570.49
Fair Value$30.81$32.27$33.78
Upside / Downside-43.93%-41.28%-38.53%

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