Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hongfa Technology Co., Ltd. (600885.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.24 - $243.33$228.03
Multi-Stage$34.12 - $37.35$35.71
Blended Fair Value$131.87
Current Price$26.36
Upside400.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.76%33.38%0.330.250.210.170.140.140.140.090.070.11
YoY Growth--29.38%18.34%26.18%17.24%0.00%1.50%60.00%25.00%-33.33%481.27%
Dividend Yield--1.24%1.35%0.92%0.70%0.57%1.02%0.99%0.58%0.53%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,831.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)585.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,245.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)366.27228.92137.35
Cash Retained (M)1,245.761,245.761,245.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-366.27-228.92-137.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)879.491,016.841,108.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,496.791,496.791,496.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.680.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.680.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$89.24$228.03$243.33
Upside / Downside238.55%765.07%823.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,831.341,950.382,077.152,212.172,355.962,509.102,584.37
Payout Ratio31.98%43.58%55.19%66.79%78.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)585.59849.991,146.291,477.511,846.962,258.192,390.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)789.45796.93804.42
Year 2 PV (M)988.831,007.661,026.67
Year 3 PV (M)1,183.781,217.761,252.39
Year 4 PV (M)1,374.391,427.241,481.61
Year 5 PV (M)1,560.721,636.101,714.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,177.6347,359.7249,625.33
Equity Value (M)51,074.7953,445.4355,904.79
Shares Outstanding (M)1,496.791,496.791,496.79
Fair Value$34.12$35.71$37.35
Upside / Downside29.45%35.46%41.69%

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