Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Haixin Group Co., Ltd. (600851.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.19 - $1.80$1.48
Multi-Stage$1.07 - $1.17$1.12
Blended Fair Value$1.30
Current Price$6.56
Upside-80.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.32%10.06%0.070.050.040.040.030.050.030.030.080.11
YoY Growth--43.16%21.84%1.37%14.04%-32.62%40.56%24.27%-64.49%-29.11%336.40%
Dividend Yield--1.06%0.79%0.62%0.48%0.41%0.60%0.40%0.26%0.68%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.2519.5311.72
Cash Retained (M)132.59132.59132.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.25-19.53-11.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)101.34113.06120.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,206.171,206.171,206.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate13.39%13.39%13.39%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Fair Value$1.19$1.48$1.80
Upside / Downside-81.84%-77.46%-72.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.25164.56173.32182.54192.25202.48208.56
Payout Ratio15.14%30.11%45.08%60.06%75.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.6649.5678.14109.63144.24182.23192.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate13.39%13.39%13.39%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Year 1 PV (M)43.2943.7044.12
Year 2 PV (M)59.6260.7761.93
Year 3 PV (M)73.0775.1977.35
Year 4 PV (M)83.9887.2490.60
Year 5 PV (M)92.6797.20101.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)943.81989.921,037.82
Equity Value (M)1,296.431,354.021,413.72
Shares Outstanding (M)1,206.171,206.171,206.17
Fair Value$1.07$1.12$1.17
Upside / Downside-83.62%-82.89%-82.13%

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