Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sunny Loan Top Co.,Ltd. (600830.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.34 - $2.05$1.67
Multi-Stage$3.18 - $3.50$3.34
Blended Fair Value$2.50
Current Price$9.72
Upside-74.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.74%-0.23%0.120.060.010.070.020.090.050.060.110.10
YoY Growth--106.34%439.17%-84.26%249.47%-77.36%81.93%-19.67%-44.31%12.53%-23.01%
Dividend Yield--1.32%0.87%0.18%1.09%0.43%1.62%0.71%0.84%0.97%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)67.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.538.465.07
Cash Retained (M)11.7411.7411.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.53-8.46-5.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.793.286.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)455.77455.77455.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-2.23%-1.23%-0.23%
Fair Value$1.34$1.67$2.05
Upside / Downside-86.24%-82.82%-78.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)67.6666.8366.0065.1964.3963.5965.50
Payout Ratio82.65%84.12%85.59%87.06%88.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.9256.2156.4956.7557.0057.2360.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-2.23%-1.23%-0.23%
Year 1 PV (M)52.2752.8153.34
Year 2 PV (M)48.8549.8550.87
Year 3 PV (M)45.6447.0548.49
Year 4 PV (M)42.6244.3946.22
Year 5 PV (M)39.8041.8744.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,221.411,285.161,351.56
Equity Value (M)1,450.581,521.141,594.52
Shares Outstanding (M)455.77455.77455.77
Fair Value$3.18$3.34$3.50
Upside / Downside-67.26%-65.66%-64.01%

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