Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Jiebai Group Co., Limited (600814.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.32 - $5.78$4.37
Multi-Stage$6.48 - $7.12$6.80
Blended Fair Value$5.58
Current Price$7.46
Upside-25.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.90%17.02%0.140.130.180.110.090.060.080.080.090.10
YoY Growth--10.15%-31.67%74.10%12.94%53.93%-20.47%-2.93%-15.81%-4.76%241.57%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.99%2.37%1.35%1.68%1.11%1.22%1.05%0.78%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)196.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.2824.5514.73
Cash Retained (M)95.6295.6295.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.28-24.55-14.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.3471.0780.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)765.86765.86765.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.220.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate0.00%1.00%2.00%
Fair Value$3.32$4.37$5.78
Upside / Downside-55.53%-41.39%-22.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)196.38198.34200.32202.32204.33206.37212.56
Payout Ratio51.31%59.05%66.79%74.52%82.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.76117.12133.78150.77168.09185.73196.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate0.00%1.00%2.00%
Year 1 PV (M)109.21110.30111.39
Year 2 PV (M)116.33118.66121.02
Year 3 PV (M)122.24125.95129.73
Year 4 PV (M)127.08132.24137.56
Year 5 PV (M)130.94137.62144.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,358.664,581.004,812.33
Equity Value (M)4,964.465,205.775,456.59
Shares Outstanding (M)765.86765.86765.86
Fair Value$6.48$6.80$7.12
Upside / Downside-13.11%-8.88%-4.49%

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