Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Luyin Investment Group Co.,Ltd. (600784.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.75 - $44.25$17.10
Multi-Stage$5.85 - $6.40$6.12
Blended Fair Value$11.61
Current Price$6.35
Upside82.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS60.65%15.65%0.110.050.040.030.010.010.090.030.110.02
YoY Growth--115.97%42.86%34.26%287.50%-33.33%-89.08%266.44%-77.00%552.18%-33.33%
Dividend Yield--1.77%0.93%0.56%0.37%0.12%0.24%1.52%0.47%1.28%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)194.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.7426.0915.65
Cash Retained (M)194.58194.58194.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.74-26.09-15.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)152.84168.49178.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)668.44668.44668.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.75$17.10$44.25
Upside / Downside53.60%169.26%596.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208.70222.26236.71252.10268.48285.94294.51
Payout Ratio6.76%23.41%40.06%56.71%73.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.1252.0494.82142.95196.94257.34272.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)47.6448.0948.54
Year 2 PV (M)79.4880.9982.52
Year 3 PV (M)109.70112.85116.06
Year 4 PV (M)138.36143.68149.15
Year 5 PV (M)165.52173.52181.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,368.643,531.353,700.28
Equity Value (M)3,909.354,090.484,278.38
Shares Outstanding (M)668.44668.44668.44
Fair Value$5.85$6.12$6.40
Upside / Downside-7.90%-3.63%0.80%

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