Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Eastern Communications Co., Ltd. (600776.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.18 - $3.10$2.64
Multi-Stage$3.20 - $3.52$3.35
Blended Fair Value$2.99
Current Price$12.68
Upside-76.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.37%-0.23%0.060.060.040.040.040.060.060.060.060.06
YoY Growth--10.86%37.50%0.00%0.16%-33.28%-0.02%-1.02%0.40%-2.18%-1.32%
Dividend Yield--0.56%0.54%0.36%0.37%0.35%0.35%0.19%0.95%0.77%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)411.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)411.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)82.3351.4530.87
Cash Retained (M)411.54411.54411.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-82.33-51.45-30.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)329.22360.09380.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,251.551,251.551,251.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.18$2.64$3.10
Upside / Downside-82.78%-79.22%-75.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)411.63407.51403.44399.40395.41391.45403.20
Payout Ratio0.02%18.02%36.01%54.01%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0873.42145.29215.71284.71352.31372.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)66.1866.8667.53
Year 2 PV (M)118.06120.48122.93
Year 3 PV (M)158.01162.90167.89
Year 4 PV (M)188.00195.80203.83
Year 5 PV (M)209.72220.64232.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,259.163,428.873,605.58
Equity Value (M)3,999.144,195.544,399.76
Shares Outstanding (M)1,251.551,251.551,251.55
Fair Value$3.20$3.35$3.52
Upside / Downside-74.80%-73.56%-72.28%

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