Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hunan Haili Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (600731.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.64 - $26.67$15.98
Multi-Stage$7.22 - $7.90$7.55
Blended Fair Value$11.77
Current Price$7.18
Upside63.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.28%14.62%0.230.040.030.080.050.070.050.060.060.06
YoY Growth--499.52%26.36%-61.44%46.72%-22.05%37.16%-17.25%9.94%-0.16%-6.00%
Dividend Yield--3.65%0.63%0.36%1.00%0.77%1.67%1.33%1.31%0.83%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)262.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)253.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.5832.8719.72
Cash Retained (M)253.25253.25253.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.58-32.87-19.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)200.67220.39233.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)553.03553.03553.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.400.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.400.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.64$15.98$26.67
Upside / Downside48.13%122.55%271.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)262.92280.01298.21317.60338.24360.22371.03
Payout Ratio3.68%20.94%38.21%55.47%72.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.6758.64113.94176.17246.02324.20343.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)53.1653.6654.17
Year 2 PV (M)93.6495.4297.22
Year 3 PV (M)131.25135.02138.86
Year 4 PV (M)166.16172.55179.13
Year 5 PV (M)198.51208.09218.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,350.113,511.923,679.93
Equity Value (M)3,992.834,176.684,367.35
Shares Outstanding (M)553.03553.03553.03
Fair Value$7.22$7.55$7.90
Upside / Downside0.56%5.19%9.99%

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