Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Hi-Tech Group Co., Ltd. (600730.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.10 - $0.15$0.12
Multi-Stage$0.17 - $0.18$0.17
Blended Fair Value$0.15
Current Price$8.68
Upside-98.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.010.010.000.130.200.180.110.17
YoY Growth---100.00%-99.66%-31.04%18,269.33%-99.95%-35.38%10.77%65.83%-36.10%32.81%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.12%0.18%0.00%3.01%2.92%2.87%0.94%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.691.060.63
Cash Retained (M)2.632.632.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.69-1.06-0.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.941.571.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)537.42537.42537.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.10$0.12$0.15
Upside / Downside-98.81%-98.57%-98.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.468.378.298.218.128.048.28
Payout Ratio68.94%73.15%77.36%81.58%85.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.836.136.416.696.977.247.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)5.515.575.63
Year 2 PV (M)5.195.305.41
Year 3 PV (M)4.885.035.19
Year 4 PV (M)4.574.764.96
Year 5 PV (M)4.274.504.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)64.7268.0971.60
Equity Value (M)89.1693.2597.51
Shares Outstanding (M)537.42537.42537.42
Fair Value$0.17$0.17$0.18
Upside / Downside-98.09%-98.00%-97.91%

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