Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Security Co., Ltd. (600654.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.48 - $0.68$0.58
Multi-Stage$0.70 - $0.77$0.74
Blended Fair Value$0.66
Current Price$3.22
Upside-79.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.83%-3.86%0.010.010.040.030.030.020.060.080.090.08
YoY Growth---36.17%-79.98%35.43%10.12%25.93%-63.07%-20.42%-6.69%15.07%791.25%
Dividend Yield--0.18%0.32%1.72%1.47%1.93%1.14%2.70%2.61%0.52%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)206.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)200.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.3825.8615.52
Cash Retained (M)200.29200.29200.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.38-25.86-15.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)158.91174.43184.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,835.872,835.872,835.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.48$0.58$0.68
Upside / Downside-85.06%-81.98%-78.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)206.90204.83202.78200.75198.75196.76202.66
Payout Ratio3.19%20.55%37.92%55.28%72.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.6042.1076.89110.97144.37177.08187.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)37.9238.3138.70
Year 2 PV (M)62.3963.6664.96
Year 3 PV (M)81.1183.6286.18
Year 4 PV (M)95.0598.99103.05
Year 5 PV (M)105.02110.49116.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,612.821,696.811,784.25
Equity Value (M)1,994.312,091.882,193.32
Shares Outstanding (M)2,835.872,835.872,835.87
Fair Value$0.70$0.74$0.77
Upside / Downside-78.16%-77.09%-75.98%

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