Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Daily Digital Culture Group Co.,Ltd. (600633.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.77 - $7.67$6.08
Multi-Stage$8.04 - $8.83$8.43
Blended Fair Value$7.25
Current Price$14.49
Upside-49.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.78%1.85%0.220.100.040.100.110.080.180.150.190.20
YoY Growth--126.97%152.84%-62.42%-9.36%37.03%-55.18%18.78%-18.29%-7.63%11.67%
Dividend Yield--1.63%0.85%0.31%1.25%1.48%0.80%1.72%1.12%0.95%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)571.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)368.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.3271.4542.87
Cash Retained (M)368.47368.47368.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.32-71.45-42.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)254.15297.02325.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,280.461,280.461,280.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.34%7.34%7.34%
Growth Rate-0.15%0.85%1.85%
Fair Value$4.77$6.08$7.67
Upside / Downside-67.11%-58.06%-47.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)571.60576.47581.39586.35591.35596.40614.29
Payout Ratio35.54%46.43%57.32%68.21%79.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.13267.66333.27399.98467.80536.76568.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.34%7.34%7.34%
Growth Rate-0.15%0.85%1.85%
Year 1 PV (M)246.89249.36251.84
Year 2 PV (M)283.56289.27295.04
Year 3 PV (M)313.93323.45333.17
Year 4 PV (M)338.68352.45366.64
Year 5 PV (M)358.45376.76395.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,752.889,200.049,665.28
Equity Value (M)10,294.3910,791.3411,307.78
Shares Outstanding (M)1,280.461,280.461,280.46
Fair Value$8.04$8.43$8.83
Upside / Downside-44.52%-41.84%-39.05%

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