Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Baoji Titanium Industry Co., Ltd. (600456.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.55 - $48.33$27.15
Multi-Stage$11.76 - $12.86$12.30
Blended Fair Value$19.72
Current Price$32.53
Upside-39.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.60%5.19%0.470.581.091.260.410.380.270.310.300.32
YoY Growth---19.51%-46.33%-13.85%207.08%9.59%37.12%-10.34%1.96%-6.38%12.91%
Dividend Yield--1.42%2.18%3.05%2.43%1.06%1.63%1.07%1.52%1.28%1.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)347.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)296.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.4843.4326.06
Cash Retained (M)296.11296.11296.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.48-43.43-26.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)226.63252.69270.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)477.75477.75477.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.530.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.530.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.67
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.55$27.15$48.33
Upside / Downside-46.04%-16.55%48.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)347.42370.00394.05419.66446.94475.99490.27
Payout Ratio14.77%29.81%44.86%59.91%74.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.30110.31176.77251.41335.00428.39453.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)100.26101.21102.16
Year 2 PV (M)146.01148.80151.60
Year 3 PV (M)188.73194.15199.67
Year 4 PV (M)228.56237.35246.39
Year 5 PV (M)265.64278.47291.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,689.794,916.315,151.49
Equity Value (M)5,619.005,876.296,143.12
Shares Outstanding (M)477.75477.75477.75
Fair Value$11.76$12.30$12.86
Upside / Downside-63.84%-62.19%-60.47%

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