Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenghe Resources Holding Co., Ltd (600392.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.44 - $79.86$29.22
Multi-Stage$9.81 - $10.74$10.27
Blended Fair Value$19.74
Current Price$23.05
Upside-14.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.23%32.01%0.120.160.170.160.070.140.100.080.020.05
YoY Growth---26.71%-3.70%4.04%148.24%-50.98%28.82%34.29%263.18%-58.11%583.62%
Dividend Yield--1.11%1.64%1.21%0.97%0.38%1.96%0.86%0.60%0.22%0.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)901.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)107.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)794.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)180.39112.7467.64
Cash Retained (M)794.48794.48794.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-180.39-112.74-67.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)614.10681.74726.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,753.161,753.161,753.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.44$29.22$79.86
Upside / Downside-28.66%26.78%246.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)901.93960.551,022.991,089.481,160.301,235.721,272.79
Payout Ratio11.91%27.53%43.15%58.77%74.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)107.45264.44441.40640.24863.061,112.151,177.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)242.24244.54246.83
Year 2 PV (M)370.39377.44384.57
Year 3 PV (M)492.13506.26520.66
Year 4 PV (M)607.71631.08655.12
Year 5 PV (M)717.35752.00787.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,772.7615,486.2916,227.13
Equity Value (M)17,202.5917,997.6218,822.28
Shares Outstanding (M)1,753.161,753.161,753.16
Fair Value$9.81$10.27$10.74
Upside / Downside-57.43%-55.46%-53.42%

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