DDM Analysis: 600389.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$14.59 - $25.60	$19.27
Multi-Stage	$26.53 - $29.17	$27.83
Blended Fair Value	$23.55
Current Price	$26.10
Upside	-9.77%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-0.42%	2.26%	0.27	0.14	2.12	1.03	0.90	0.28	0.18	0.04	0.01	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	90.19%	-93.32%	105.63%	14.50%	227.50%	53.85%	390.57%	165.00%	-90.32%	-34.04%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.80%	1.06%	7.73%	3.27%	5.99%	2.06%	1.38%	0.29%	0.11%	1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	478.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	162.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)	315.19

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	95.62	59.76	35.86
Cash Retained (M)	315.19	315.19	315.19
(-) Cash Required (M)	-95.62	-59.76	-35.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)	219.58	255.43	279.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	431.20	431.20	431.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.51	0.59	0.65
LTM Dividend per Share	0.38	0.38	0.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.51	0.59	0.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.89	0.97	1.03
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	0.26%	1.26%	2.26%
Fair Value	$14.59	$19.27	$25.60
Upside / Downside	-44.11%	-26.15%	-1.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	478.08	484.10	490.19	496.35	502.60	508.92	524.19
Payout Ratio	34.07%	45.26%	56.44%	67.63%	78.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	162.89	219.09	276.68	335.68	396.12	458.03	484.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	0.26%	1.26%	2.26%
Year 1 PV (M)	203.96	206.00	208.03
Year 2 PV (M)	239.79	244.60	249.46
Year 3 PV (M)	270.85	279.03	287.38
Year 4 PV (M)	297.55	309.60	322.01
Year 5 PV (M)	320.30	336.60	353.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,108.26	10,622.53	11,157.52
Equity Value (M)	11,440.72	11,998.37	12,577.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	431.20	431.20	431.20
Fair Value	$26.53	$27.83	$29.17
Upside / Downside	1.66%	6.61%	11.76%

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Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals Co.,Ltd. (600389.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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