Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited (600377.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.83 - $42.32$27.28
Multi-Stage$24.80 - $27.24$26.00
Blended Fair Value$26.64
Current Price$12.56
Upside112.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.10%1.94%0.690.710.710.660.630.570.600.540.520.56
YoY Growth---2.24%0.12%7.58%3.59%12.07%-5.23%10.27%3.39%-6.99%-1.31%
Dividend Yield--4.53%6.26%8.46%7.81%6.37%5.76%5.97%5.57%5.61%6.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,664.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)689.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,974.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)932.82583.01349.81
Cash Retained (M)3,974.793,974.793,974.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-932.82-583.01-349.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,041.973,391.773,624.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,813.874,813.874,813.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate2.18%3.18%4.18%
Fair Value$18.83$27.28$42.32
Upside / Downside49.92%117.22%236.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,664.094,812.444,965.505,123.435,286.395,454.525,618.16
Payout Ratio14.78%29.82%44.87%59.91%74.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)689.311,435.222,227.893,069.533,962.454,909.075,196.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate2.18%3.18%4.18%
Year 1 PV (M)1,335.991,349.061,362.14
Year 2 PV (M)1,930.461,968.432,006.77
Year 3 PV (M)2,475.832,549.242,624.08
Year 4 PV (M)2,975.073,093.253,214.92
Year 5 PV (M)3,430.953,602.163,780.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)107,244.77112,596.30118,159.37
Equity Value (M)119,393.07125,158.44131,147.40
Shares Outstanding (M)4,813.874,813.874,813.87
Fair Value$24.80$26.00$27.24
Upside / Downside97.47%107.00%116.91%

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