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Definitive Analysis

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Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co.,Ltd (600356.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.92 - $100.50$94.19
Multi-Stage$15.60 - $17.08$16.33
Blended Fair Value$55.26
Current Price$9.70
Upside469.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.34%11.96%0.230.130.100.130.090.130.100.090.090.08
YoY Growth--77.20%27.25%-23.31%47.78%-33.04%35.76%3.12%6.67%12.01%8.09%
Dividend Yield--2.96%1.73%1.22%1.75%1.11%1.91%1.02%1.18%0.74%0.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)154.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)103.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.8119.2611.55
Cash Retained (M)103.10103.10103.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.81-19.26-11.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.2983.8491.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)304.87304.87304.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$51.92$94.19$100.50
Upside / Downside435.26%870.99%936.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)154.07164.08174.75186.10198.20211.08217.42
Payout Ratio33.08%44.47%55.85%67.23%78.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.9772.9697.59125.12155.82189.98201.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)67.9868.6269.27
Year 2 PV (M)84.7286.3387.96
Year 3 PV (M)101.20104.11107.07
Year 4 PV (M)117.42121.94126.58
Year 5 PV (M)133.38139.83146.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,251.174,456.514,669.70
Equity Value (M)4,755.884,977.335,207.09
Shares Outstanding (M)304.87304.87304.87
Fair Value$15.60$16.33$17.08
Upside / Downside60.82%68.31%76.08%

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