Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co., Ltd. (600313.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.41 - $0.61$0.51
Multi-Stage$0.58 - $0.64$0.61
Blended Fair Value$0.56
Current Price$6.23
Upside-91.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.53%-4.68%0.010.020.020.020.010.020.030.050.040.05
YoY Growth---36.70%-0.76%-21.02%94.85%-49.99%-7.95%-42.48%12.19%-21.25%173.72%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.27%0.19%0.28%0.26%0.58%0.90%1.37%0.69%1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)53.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.706.694.01
Cash Retained (M)47.7647.7647.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.70-6.69-4.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.0641.0743.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,057.301,057.301,057.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate-0.39%0.61%1.61%
Fair Value$0.41$0.51$0.61
Upside / Downside-93.36%-91.83%-90.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)53.5053.8354.1654.4954.8255.1656.81
Payout Ratio10.74%26.59%42.44%58.29%74.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.7414.3122.9931.7640.6549.6452.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate-0.39%0.61%1.61%
Year 1 PV (M)12.9613.0913.22
Year 2 PV (M)18.8419.2219.60
Year 3 PV (M)23.5724.2925.02
Year 4 PV (M)27.3128.4229.57
Year 5 PV (M)30.1931.7433.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)502.58528.31555.10
Equity Value (M)615.44645.06675.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,057.301,057.301,057.30
Fair Value$0.58$0.61$0.64
Upside / Downside-90.66%-90.21%-89.74%

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