Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nanjing Business & Tourism Corp., Ltd. (600250.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.26 - $0.34$0.30
Multi-Stage$0.66 - $0.73$0.69
Blended Fair Value$0.50
Current Price$11.10
Upside-95.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.14%-13.49%0.070.050.080.100.110.160.170.160.180.21
YoY Growth--40.30%-31.88%-19.81%-15.13%-28.25%-10.18%6.57%-11.23%-11.82%-32.84%
Dividend Yield--0.79%0.57%1.27%1.60%2.32%1.95%1.83%1.80%1.42%1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.103.191.91
Cash Retained (M)14.9914.9914.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.10-3.19-1.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8811.8013.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)305.85305.85305.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate-14.01%-13.01%-12.01%
Fair Value$0.26$0.30$0.34
Upside / Downside-97.65%-97.27%-96.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.5222.2019.3116.8014.6112.7113.09
Payout Ratio41.28%51.03%60.77%70.51%80.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.5411.3311.7411.8511.7311.4412.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate-14.01%-13.01%-12.01%
Year 1 PV (M)10.3710.4910.61
Year 2 PV (M)9.8410.0710.30
Year 3 PV (M)9.099.419.74
Year 4 PV (M)8.248.639.03
Year 5 PV (M)7.367.808.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)156.50165.81175.57
Equity Value (M)201.39212.20223.50
Shares Outstanding (M)305.85305.85305.85
Fair Value$0.66$0.69$0.73
Upside / Downside-94.07%-93.75%-93.42%

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