Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Co., Ltd. (600161.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.52 - $41.31$23.76
Multi-Stage$10.50 - $11.48$10.98
Blended Fair Value$17.37
Current Price$19.08
Upside-8.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.57%5.12%0.120.050.080.080.050.030.070.100.050.06
YoY Growth--162.88%-40.19%-4.05%76.39%53.88%-56.93%-27.26%91.68%-20.01%-16.21%
Dividend Yield--0.61%0.21%0.38%0.48%0.21%0.14%0.57%0.90%0.45%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,316.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)197.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,119.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)263.23164.5298.71
Cash Retained (M)1,119.031,119.031,119.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-263.23-164.52-98.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)855.80954.511,020.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,993.851,993.851,993.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.52$23.76$41.31
Upside / Downside-18.64%24.53%116.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,316.131,401.681,492.791,589.821,693.161,803.211,857.31
Payout Ratio14.98%29.98%44.99%59.99%75.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)197.10420.24671.54953.741,269.791,622.891,718.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)381.61385.22388.84
Year 2 PV (M)553.75564.30574.95
Year 3 PV (M)714.16734.66755.55
Year 4 PV (M)863.42896.62930.78
Year 5 PV (M)1,002.081,050.481,100.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,422.1018,263.6019,137.30
Equity Value (M)20,937.1221,894.8922,888.15
Shares Outstanding (M)1,993.851,993.851,993.85
Fair Value$10.50$10.98$11.48
Upside / Downside-44.96%-42.45%-39.84%

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