Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiangcai Co.,Ltd (600095.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.84 - $3.19$2.42
Multi-Stage$3.29 - $3.62$3.45
Blended Fair Value$2.93
Current Price$13.18
Upside-77.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.14%32.11%0.160.190.260.180.110.190.010.010.010.01
YoY Growth---15.45%-28.59%43.52%68.17%-44.45%3,052.14%3.23%17.52%-24.12%-31.09%
Dividend Yield--2.07%2.68%2.72%2.18%1.27%1.88%0.12%0.09%0.04%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)405.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)201.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)203.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.0650.6630.40
Cash Retained (M)203.89203.89203.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.06-50.66-30.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)122.83153.23173.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,851.662,851.662,851.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate0.30%1.30%2.30%
Fair Value$1.84$2.42$3.19
Upside / Downside-86.08%-81.67%-75.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)405.31410.56415.88421.27426.73432.26445.23
Payout Ratio49.70%57.76%65.82%73.88%81.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)201.42237.13273.72311.23349.66389.03411.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate0.30%1.30%2.30%
Year 1 PV (M)220.44222.63224.83
Year 2 PV (M)236.55241.29246.07
Year 3 PV (M)250.03257.58265.28
Year 4 PV (M)261.13271.70282.59
Year 5 PV (M)270.08283.82298.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,146.768,561.088,992.09
Equity Value (M)9,384.989,838.1010,308.97
Shares Outstanding (M)2,851.662,851.662,851.66
Fair Value$3.29$3.45$3.62
Upside / Downside-75.03%-73.82%-72.57%

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