Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Huangshan Tourism Development Co.,Ltd. (600054.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.70 - $74.63$69.92
Multi-Stage$37.38 - $41.16$39.23
Blended Fair Value$54.58
Current Price$11.76
Upside364.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.77%10.86%0.220.010.110.000.110.130.250.190.140.07
YoY Growth--1,981.70%-89.94%38,519.86%-99.75%-17.44%-46.96%28.28%40.94%103.09%-13.66%
Dividend Yield--1.86%0.09%0.74%0.00%1.01%1.57%2.05%1.48%0.80%0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)283.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)189.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.7235.4521.27
Cash Retained (M)189.95189.95189.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.72-35.45-21.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)133.23154.50168.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)729.32729.32729.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate2.28%2.28%2.28%
Growth Rate1.75%2.75%3.75%
Fair Value$59.70$69.92$74.63
Upside / Downside407.61%494.55%534.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)283.60291.39299.39307.62316.07324.75334.49
Payout Ratio33.02%44.42%55.81%67.21%78.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.65129.43167.10206.75248.44292.27309.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.28%2.28%2.28%
Growth Rate1.75%2.75%3.75%
Year 1 PV (M)125.32126.55127.78
Year 2 PV (M)156.65159.75162.87
Year 3 PV (M)187.66193.25198.94
Year 4 PV (M)218.34227.05236.02
Year 5 PV (M)248.69261.16274.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,327.0527,646.4929,018.31
Equity Value (M)27,263.7128,614.2430,018.04
Shares Outstanding (M)729.32729.32729.32
Fair Value$37.38$39.23$41.16
Upside / Downside217.88%233.62%249.99%

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