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Definitive Analysis

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Fujian Expressway Development Co.,Ltd (600033.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.13 - $5.05$3.99
Multi-Stage$6.83 - $7.53$7.17
Blended Fair Value$5.58
Current Price$3.36
Upside66.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.11%-3.57%0.180.150.150.100.110.260.210.250.210.26
YoY Growth--21.16%0.00%50.00%-10.02%-57.71%25.19%-16.74%22.04%-19.62%-1.66%
Dividend Yield--4.72%4.49%5.15%3.44%4.09%9.63%6.05%7.20%5.37%7.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)809.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)222.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)586.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)161.83101.1460.69
Cash Retained (M)586.35586.35586.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-161.83-101.14-60.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)424.52485.21525.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,744.402,744.402,744.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-1.23%-0.23%0.77%
Fair Value$3.13$3.99$5.05
Upside / Downside-6.85%18.89%50.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)809.15807.28805.42803.56801.70799.85823.85
Payout Ratio27.53%40.03%52.52%65.01%77.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)222.80323.14423.01522.43621.38719.87762.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-1.23%-0.23%0.77%
Year 1 PV (M)301.19304.24307.29
Year 2 PV (M)367.50374.98382.53
Year 3 PV (M)423.03436.01449.25
Year 4 PV (M)468.98488.26508.14
Year 5 PV (M)506.41532.57559.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,688.3317,550.4318,447.79
Equity Value (M)18,755.4419,686.4920,654.80
Shares Outstanding (M)2,744.402,744.402,744.40
Fair Value$6.83$7.17$7.53
Upside / Downside103.40%113.49%123.99%

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