Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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United Recommend International Co., Ltd. (5321.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.75 - $162.72$152.49
Multi-Stage$23.52 - $25.69$24.59
Blended Fair Value$88.54
Current Price$40.85
Upside116.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS39.10%0.00%0.770.520.320.000.180.150.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--48.00%60.99%0.00%-100.00%20.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.65%0.72%0.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.865.533.32
Cash Retained (M)7.517.517.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.86-5.53-3.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.341.984.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)54.1254.1254.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.040.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.040.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.75$152.49$162.72
Upside / Downside43.81%273.30%298.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.2847.1650.2253.4956.9660.6662.48
Payout Ratio83.04%84.43%85.82%87.21%88.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.7739.8143.1046.6550.4754.6057.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)36.9737.3237.67
Year 2 PV (M)37.1737.8838.59
Year 3 PV (M)37.3538.4339.52
Year 4 PV (M)37.5338.9840.46
Year 5 PV (M)37.7039.5241.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,085.911,138.361,192.81
Equity Value (M)1,272.631,330.481,390.47
Shares Outstanding (M)54.1254.1254.12
Fair Value$23.52$24.59$25.69
Upside / Downside-42.43%-39.81%-37.10%

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