Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Advanced Echem Materials Company Limited (4749.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,793.61 - $2,113.18$1,980.35
Multi-Stage$1,250.09 - $1,371.54$1,309.68
Blended Fair Value$1,645.02
Current Price$890.00
Upside84.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS52.45%0.00%2.552.720.900.000.180.310.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---6.03%202.99%0.00%-100.00%-41.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.46%0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)955.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)555.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)400.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)191.12119.4571.67
Cash Retained (M)400.21400.21400.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-191.12-119.45-71.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)209.09280.76328.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.9389.9389.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.333.123.65
LTM Dividend per Share6.186.186.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.333.123.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.509.309.83
WACC / Discount Rate1.90%1.90%1.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,793.61$1,980.35$2,113.18
Upside / Downside101.53%122.51%137.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)955.581,017.701,083.851,154.301,229.331,309.231,348.51
Payout Ratio58.12%64.50%70.87%77.25%83.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)555.37656.36768.14891.671,028.011,178.311,247.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.90%1.90%1.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)638.07644.12650.17
Year 2 PV (M)725.92739.75753.70
Year 3 PV (M)819.18842.69866.66
Year 4 PV (M)918.12953.43989.74
Year 5 PV (M)1,023.031,072.441,123.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)108,298.75113,529.62118,960.69
Equity Value (M)112,423.07117,782.05123,344.71
Shares Outstanding (M)89.9389.9389.93
Fair Value$1,250.09$1,309.68$1,371.54
Upside / Downside40.46%47.16%54.11%

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