Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Retal Urban Development Company (4322.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.28 - $8.19$6.63
Multi-Stage$12.21 - $13.44$12.82
Blended Fair Value$9.72
Current Price$11.99
Upside-18.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.320.400.160.300.100.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---20.00%150.00%-45.85%195.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.80%4.21%1.69%3.05%1.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)281.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)135.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)146.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.2835.1721.10
Cash Retained (M)146.39146.39146.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.28-35.17-21.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)90.11111.22125.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)500.00500.00500.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.28$6.63$8.19
Upside / Downside-55.95%-44.71%-31.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)281.39278.58275.79273.03270.30267.60275.63
Payout Ratio47.98%56.38%64.79%73.19%81.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)135.00157.06178.67199.83220.55240.84254.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)146.19147.68149.17
Year 2 PV (M)154.79157.96161.17
Year 3 PV (M)161.13166.12171.20
Year 4 PV (M)165.53172.39179.46
Year 5 PV (M)168.23177.00186.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,309.985,586.485,874.39
Equity Value (M)6,105.856,407.626,721.50
Shares Outstanding (M)500.00500.00500.00
Fair Value$12.21$12.82$13.44
Upside / Downside1.85%6.88%12.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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