Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

All Cosmos Bio-Tech Holding Corporation (4148.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.77 - $37.14$29.20
Multi-Stage$48.65 - $53.58$51.06
Blended Fair Value$40.13
Current Price$39.30
Upside2.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.06%-6.47%0.972.411.450.970.972.322.561.830.851.28
YoY Growth---60.00%66.67%50.00%0.00%-58.33%-9.43%39.69%115.00%-33.33%-32.20%
Dividend Yield--2.40%4.94%2.31%1.62%2.80%11.21%4.66%1.49%1.25%1.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)105.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.5817.2410.34
Cash Retained (M)105.90105.90105.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.58-17.24-10.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)78.3288.6695.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.3366.3366.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.181.341.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.181.341.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.821.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Fair Value$22.77$29.20$37.14
Upside / Downside-42.05%-25.70%-5.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137.92137.88137.85137.82137.78137.75141.88
Payout Ratio23.21%36.57%49.93%63.29%76.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.0250.4368.8387.22105.60123.97131.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Year 1 PV (M)47.0147.4847.96
Year 2 PV (M)59.8161.0262.25
Year 3 PV (M)70.6472.8175.01
Year 4 PV (M)79.7383.0086.37
Year 5 PV (M)87.2591.7596.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,882.583,031.173,185.83
Equity Value (M)3,227.023,387.233,553.86
Shares Outstanding (M)66.3366.3366.33
Fair Value$48.65$51.06$53.58
Upside / Downside23.79%29.93%36.32%

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