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Definitive Analysis

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HPSP Co., Ltd. (403870.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42,006.75 - $201,803.84$91,028.81
Multi-Stage$23,047.95 - $25,178.21$24,093.73
Blended Fair Value$57,561.27
Current Price$33,750.00
Upside70.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS143.12%0.00%91.6822.210.00244.9892.921.0883.670.000.000.00
YoY Growth--312.86%0.00%-100.00%163.66%8,508.32%-98.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.04%0.00%2.27%0.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82,868.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48,219.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,649.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16,573.6910,358.566,215.13
Cash Retained (M)34,649.2434,649.2434,649.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-16,573.69-10,358.56-6,215.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,075.5524,290.6928,434.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.6781.6781.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share221.34297.44348.18
LTM Dividend per Share590.45590.45590.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share221.34297.44348.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend811.78887.89938.62
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42,006.75$91,028.81$201,803.84
Upside / Downside24.46%169.72%497.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82,868.4588,254.8993,991.46100,100.91106,607.47113,536.95116,943.06
Payout Ratio58.19%64.55%70.91%77.28%83.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48,219.2056,968.6466,651.7877,353.0489,163.85102,183.26108,172.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52,477.5552,974.9753,472.39
Year 2 PV (M)56,557.1057,634.3658,721.78
Year 3 PV (M)60,463.1162,198.7963,967.37
Year 4 PV (M)64,200.6866,669.6669,209.17
Year 5 PV (M)67,774.8071,048.3574,447.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,580,754.971,657,106.031,736,379.22
Equity Value (M)1,882,228.231,967,632.162,056,197.11
Shares Outstanding (M)81.6781.6781.67
Fair Value$23,047.95$24,093.73$25,178.21
Upside / Downside-31.71%-28.61%-25.40%

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