Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Malayan Cement Berhad (3794.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.38 - $5.25$4.24
Multi-Stage$7.75 - $8.54$8.14
Blended Fair Value$6.19
Current Price$5.02
Upside23.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.110.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.11%1.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)672.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)473.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.4884.0550.43
Cash Retained (M)473.60473.60473.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.48-84.05-50.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)339.13389.56423.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,876.071,876.071,876.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.38$4.24$5.25
Upside / Downside-32.69%-15.47%4.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)672.39665.66659.00652.41645.89639.43658.61
Payout Ratio29.56%41.65%53.74%65.83%77.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.78277.25354.14429.45503.23575.49609.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)258.15260.78263.42
Year 2 PV (M)307.01313.31319.67
Year 3 PV (M)346.65357.37368.31
Year 4 PV (M)378.21393.89410.04
Year 5 PV (M)402.71423.68445.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,856.1113,525.5614,222.61
Equity Value (M)14,548.8515,274.5916,029.57
Shares Outstanding (M)1,876.071,876.071,876.07
Fair Value$7.75$8.14$8.54
Upside / Downside54.48%62.19%70.20%

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