Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aplix Corporation (3727.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.38 - $78.45$64.74
Multi-Stage$103.68 - $113.93$108.71
Blended Fair Value$86.72
Current Price$184.00
Upside-52.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.3817.1110.27
Cash Retained (M)61.9061.9061.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.38-17.11-10.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.5244.7951.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.7521.7521.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.592.062.37
LTM Dividend per Share3.453.453.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.592.062.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.045.515.82
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$52.38$64.74$78.45
Upside / Downside-71.53%-64.81%-57.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136.90135.53134.17132.83131.50130.19134.09
Payout Ratio54.78%61.83%68.87%75.91%82.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.0083.7992.40100.84109.09117.17124.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)77.2178.0078.79
Year 2 PV (M)78.4780.0881.70
Year 3 PV (M)78.9081.3483.83
Year 4 PV (M)78.6681.9285.28
Year 5 PV (M)77.8681.9186.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,863.781,960.832,061.88
Equity Value (M)2,254.882,364.082,477.62
Shares Outstanding (M)21.7521.7521.75
Fair Value$103.68$108.71$113.93
Upside / Downside-43.65%-40.92%-38.08%

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