Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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United Alloy-Tech Company (3162.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.29 - $47.35$36.67
Multi-Stage$99.55 - $109.94$104.64
Blended Fair Value$70.65
Current Price$53.40
Upside32.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)318.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)279.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.6939.8023.88
Cash Retained (M)279.32279.32279.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.69-39.80-23.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)215.63239.52255.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.23130.23130.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.661.841.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.661.841.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.962.142.26
WACC / Discount Rate4.78%4.78%4.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$28.29$36.67$47.35
Upside / Downside-47.03%-31.34%-11.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)318.43315.25312.10308.98305.89302.83311.91
Payout Ratio12.28%27.83%43.37%58.91%74.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.1187.72135.36182.03227.75272.54288.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.78%4.78%4.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)82.8883.7284.57
Year 2 PV (M)120.82123.30125.80
Year 3 PV (M)153.50158.25163.09
Year 4 PV (M)181.45188.97196.72
Year 5 PV (M)205.14215.83226.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,220.5012,856.8513,519.44
Equity Value (M)12,964.3013,626.9214,316.58
Shares Outstanding (M)130.23130.23130.23
Fair Value$99.55$104.64$109.94
Upside / Downside86.43%95.95%105.87%

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