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Definitive Analysis

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J. Front Retailing Co., Ltd. (3086.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,608.70 - $2,841.03$2,131.07
Multi-Stage$3,062.75 - $3,366.91$3,211.89
Blended Fair Value$2,671.48
Current Price$2,301.50
Upside16.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.91%5.56%42.7332.9430.8532.8827.7937.0136.9830.8128.7726.84
YoY Growth--29.72%6.77%-6.18%18.31%-24.90%0.07%20.03%7.08%7.21%7.95%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.16%2.26%3.16%2.58%4.04%3.26%1.80%1.84%2.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,685.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,397.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)17,288.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,137.003,835.632,301.38
Cash Retained (M)17,288.0017,288.0017,288.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,137.00-3,835.63-2,301.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,151.0013,452.3814,986.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)253.88253.88253.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share43.9252.9959.03
LTM Dividend per Share52.7752.7752.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share43.9252.9959.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend96.69105.76111.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate0.16%1.16%2.16%
Fair Value$1,608.70$2,131.07$2,841.03
Upside / Downside-30.10%-7.41%23.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,685.0031,040.9231,400.9731,765.1932,133.6432,506.3633,481.56
Payout Ratio43.66%52.93%62.20%71.46%80.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,397.0016,429.2819,530.1022,700.6525,942.1229,255.7330,970.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate0.16%1.16%2.16%
Year 1 PV (M)15,320.0715,473.0215,625.98
Year 2 PV (M)16,982.0017,322.7917,666.97
Year 3 PV (M)18,406.2218,963.0519,531.00
Year 4 PV (M)19,614.3520,409.4821,228.55
Year 5 PV (M)20,626.3121,676.7522,769.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)686,609.97721,576.94757,954.23
Equity Value (M)777,558.92815,422.04854,776.27
Shares Outstanding (M)253.88253.88253.88
Fair Value$3,062.75$3,211.89$3,366.91
Upside / Downside33.08%39.56%46.29%

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