Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Longkou Union Chemical Co., Ltd. (301209.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.76 - $10.54$8.50
Multi-Stage$8.14 - $8.90$8.51
Blended Fair Value$8.51
Current Price$116.95
Upside-92.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS53.53%0.00%0.180.160.000.000.400.020.070.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.11%0.00%0.00%-100.00%1,787.73%-71.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.70%1.13%0.00%0.00%1.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.957.474.48
Cash Retained (M)37.3637.3637.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.95-7.47-4.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.4129.8932.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)87.9987.9987.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate1.77%2.77%3.77%
Fair Value$6.76$8.50$10.54
Upside / Downside-94.22%-92.73%-90.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.7661.4263.1364.8866.6868.5370.58
Payout Ratio37.48%47.98%58.49%68.99%79.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.4029.4736.9244.7653.0161.6765.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate1.77%2.77%3.77%
Year 1 PV (M)26.5426.8027.06
Year 2 PV (M)29.9430.5431.13
Year 3 PV (M)32.6933.6734.66
Year 4 PV (M)34.8736.2637.69
Year 5 PV (M)36.5338.3640.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)555.67583.51612.46
Equity Value (M)716.25749.14783.27
Shares Outstanding (M)87.9987.9987.99
Fair Value$8.14$8.51$8.90
Upside / Downside-93.04%-92.72%-92.39%

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