Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Linuo Technical Glass Co.,Ltd. (301188.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.05 - $39.47$36.99
Multi-Stage$5.26 - $5.75$5.50
Blended Fair Value$21.24
Current Price$17.21
Upside23.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720152014
DPS19.70%0.14%0.100.200.200.010.020.040.300.310.030.10
YoY Growth---47.33%-0.28%3,094.08%-70.79%-49.85%-86.00%-2.59%877.04%-68.23%-2.52%
Dividend Yield--0.59%1.13%1.07%0.03%0.08%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.12%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.305.813.49
Cash Retained (M)23.2423.2423.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.30-5.81-3.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.9517.4319.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)234.20234.20234.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.05$36.99$39.47
Upside / Downside-29.97%114.92%129.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.4849.5052.7256.1459.7963.6865.59
Payout Ratio50.00%58.00%66.00%74.00%82.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.2428.7134.7941.5549.0357.3160.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.89%6.89%6.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)26.6126.8627.11
Year 2 PV (M)29.8830.4531.03
Year 3 PV (M)33.0734.0234.99
Year 4 PV (M)36.1737.5638.99
Year 5 PV (M)39.1841.0743.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,066.341,117.841,171.32
Equity Value (M)1,231.241,287.801,346.47
Shares Outstanding (M)234.20234.20234.20
Fair Value$5.26$5.50$5.75
Upside / Downside-69.45%-68.05%-66.59%

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