Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nantong Chaoda Equipment Co.,Ltd. (301186.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$259.67 - $305.93$286.71
Multi-Stage$218.20 - $239.49$228.65
Blended Fair Value$257.68
Current Price$43.30
Upside495.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.09%0.00%0.520.360.280.000.020.320.010.210.000.00
YoY Growth--44.83%29.80%13,711.64%-88.55%-94.56%2,135.01%-93.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.31%0.89%0.80%0.01%0.03%0.53%0.02%0.34%0.00%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.0616.299.77
Cash Retained (M)88.5888.5888.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.06-16.29-9.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.5272.2978.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)84.7184.7184.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.850.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.850.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.231.351.42
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$259.67$286.71$305.93
Upside / Downside499.70%562.14%606.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.30138.77147.79157.40167.63178.53183.88
Payout Ratio32.02%43.62%55.21%66.81%78.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.7360.5381.60105.16131.43160.68170.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)61.1761.7562.33
Year 2 PV (M)83.3384.9286.52
Year 3 PV (M)108.51111.63114.80
Year 4 PV (M)137.05142.32147.75
Year 5 PV (M)169.31177.49185.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,923.6818,789.4019,688.26
Equity Value (M)18,483.0619,367.5120,285.63
Shares Outstanding (M)84.7184.7184.71
Fair Value$218.20$228.65$239.49
Upside / Downside403.94%428.05%453.08%

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