Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Inno Laser Technology Co., Ltd. (301021.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.88 - $2.66$2.26
Multi-Stage$2.88 - $3.16$3.02
Blended Fair Value$2.64
Current Price$39.48
Upside-93.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-43.00%0.00%0.000.100.120.010.040.030.050.040.010.00
YoY Growth---97.98%-16.74%1,082.40%-72.65%10.44%-25.12%2.92%242.40%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.52%0.45%0.03%0.08%0.07%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.615.383.23
Cash Retained (M)27.4827.4827.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.61-5.38-3.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.8722.0924.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)150.92150.92150.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.88$2.26$2.66
Upside / Downside-95.25%-94.27%-93.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.0642.6342.2041.7841.3640.9542.18
Payout Ratio36.19%46.95%57.71%68.48%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.5820.0224.3628.6132.7836.8639.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18.0218.2118.39
Year 2 PV (M)19.7520.1620.57
Year 3 PV (M)20.8921.5422.20
Year 4 PV (M)21.5522.4423.36
Year 5 PV (M)21.8222.9624.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)333.36350.72368.80
Equity Value (M)435.40456.03477.46
Shares Outstanding (M)150.92150.92150.92
Fair Value$2.88$3.02$3.16
Upside / Downside-92.69%-92.35%-91.99%

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