Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Color Master Batch Co., Ltd. (301019.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.86 - $8.83$7.26
Multi-Stage$7.27 - $7.98$7.62
Blended Fair Value$7.44
Current Price$18.97
Upside-60.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS2.72%0.00%0.290.290.240.000.030.250.310.180.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%20.00%0.00%-100.00%-87.67%-17.56%67.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.75%2.03%1.65%0.00%0.11%0.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)111.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2713.928.35
Cash Retained (M)111.34111.34111.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.27-13.92-8.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.0797.42102.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)165.99165.99165.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.590.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.590.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate0.72%1.72%2.72%
Fair Value$5.86$7.26$8.83
Upside / Downside-69.10%-61.71%-53.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.34113.25115.20117.17119.18121.23124.87
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0020.3941.4763.2785.81109.11115.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate0.72%1.72%2.72%
Year 1 PV (M)18.3618.5418.73
Year 2 PV (M)33.6434.3134.99
Year 3 PV (M)46.2347.6249.04
Year 4 PV (M)56.4758.7561.09
Year 5 PV (M)64.6767.9571.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)987.101,037.091,089.08
Equity Value (M)1,206.481,264.261,324.28
Shares Outstanding (M)165.99165.99165.99
Fair Value$7.27$7.62$7.98
Upside / Downside-61.69%-59.85%-57.94%

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