Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Guangdong Shenling Environmental Systems Co., Ltd. (301018.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.84 - $36.23$18.88
Multi-Stage$7.85 - $8.58$8.21
Blended Fair Value$13.54
Current Price$71.31
Upside-81.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.84%3.61%0.250.290.240.230.220.190.190.160.150.13
YoY Growth---14.23%20.47%4.88%6.47%15.11%-3.23%19.96%5.01%20.63%-27.02%
Dividend Yield--0.63%1.12%0.61%0.91%0.76%0.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)122.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.5615.359.21
Cash Retained (M)86.7586.7586.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.56-15.35-9.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.1971.4077.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)269.04269.04269.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.84$18.88$36.23
Upside / Downside-83.39%-73.52%-49.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)122.78130.76139.26148.32157.96168.22173.27
Payout Ratio29.35%41.48%53.61%65.74%77.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.0454.2474.6697.50123.00151.40160.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)49.4149.8850.34
Year 2 PV (M)61.9563.1364.32
Year 3 PV (M)73.6975.8177.96
Year 4 PV (M)84.6887.9391.28
Year 5 PV (M)94.9499.53104.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,747.111,831.501,919.11
Equity Value (M)2,111.772,207.762,307.30
Shares Outstanding (M)269.04269.04269.04
Fair Value$7.85$8.21$8.58
Upside / Downside-88.99%-88.49%-87.97%

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