Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Kitech New Material Holding Co.,Ltd. (300995.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.88 - $35.25$33.01
Multi-Stage$48.73 - $53.86$51.25
Blended Fair Value$42.13
Current Price$47.10
Upside-10.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS5.46%0.00%0.130.120.240.260.010.100.090.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.05%-49.15%-9.23%3,027.47%-91.86%9.36%3,037.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.55%1.11%1.10%0.02%0.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.181.991.19
Cash Retained (M)1.651.651.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.18-1.99-1.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.53-0.330.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.4983.4983.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate-19.03%-19.03%-19.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$29.88$33.01$35.25
Upside / Downside-36.57%-29.91%-25.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.9115.7515.5915.4415.2815.1315.58
Payout Ratio89.60%89.68%89.76%89.84%89.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.2514.1213.9913.8713.7413.6214.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.03%-19.03%-19.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)17.2717.4417.62
Year 2 PV (M)20.9221.3521.78
Year 3 PV (M)25.3426.1326.93
Year 4 PV (M)30.7031.9733.28
Year 5 PV (M)37.1939.1341.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,937.234,142.254,355.73
Equity Value (M)4,068.654,278.274,496.48
Shares Outstanding (M)83.4983.4983.49
Fair Value$48.73$51.25$53.86
Upside / Downside3.47%8.80%14.35%

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