Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Joy Kie Corporation Limited. (300994.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.92 - $10.64$8.65
Multi-Stage$8.37 - $9.19$8.77
Blended Fair Value$8.71
Current Price$17.80
Upside-51.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS17.02%0.00%0.370.490.570.300.220.170.170.000.000.00
YoY Growth---24.28%-14.89%89.30%37.13%31.15%0.72%7,309.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.94%4.39%2.93%1.26%0.77%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)169.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)169.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.8921.1812.71
Cash Retained (M)169.34169.34169.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.89-21.18-12.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)135.45148.16156.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)231.54231.54231.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.640.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.640.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.640.68
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate1.17%2.17%3.17%
Fair Value$6.92$8.65$10.64
Upside / Downside-61.13%-51.39%-40.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)169.47173.15176.91180.75184.68188.69194.35
Payout Ratio0.08%18.06%36.05%54.03%72.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.1331.2763.7797.66132.99169.82179.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate1.17%2.17%3.17%
Year 1 PV (M)28.2228.5028.78
Year 2 PV (M)51.9252.9654.00
Year 3 PV (M)71.7673.9176.10
Year 4 PV (M)88.1891.7295.36
Year 5 PV (M)101.60106.72112.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,597.121,677.631,761.35
Equity Value (M)1,938.812,031.432,127.64
Shares Outstanding (M)231.54231.54231.54
Fair Value$8.37$8.77$9.19
Upside / Downside-52.96%-50.71%-48.38%

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