Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ligao Foods Co.Ltd (300973.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$190.12 - $362.80$340.00
Multi-Stage$56.77 - $62.14$59.41
Blended Fair Value$199.70
Current Price$42.28
Upside372.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS29.30%0.00%0.740.520.500.500.310.200.020.020.000.00
YoY Growth--43.71%2.45%1.34%59.70%51.66%1,203.62%-31.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.80%1.48%0.47%0.58%0.30%0.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)312.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)187.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.5439.0923.45
Cash Retained (M)187.54187.54187.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.54-39.09-23.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)125.00148.45164.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)171.41171.41171.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.870.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.870.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.461.601.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$190.12$340.00$362.80
Upside / Downside349.67%704.16%758.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)312.71333.03354.68377.73402.29428.43441.29
Payout Ratio40.03%50.02%60.02%70.01%80.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.17166.59212.86264.45321.85385.59408.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)155.23156.70158.17
Year 2 PV (M)184.83188.35191.90
Year 3 PV (M)213.96220.10226.36
Year 4 PV (M)242.65251.98261.57
Year 5 PV (M)270.88283.96297.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,663.689,082.149,516.62
Equity Value (M)9,731.2210,183.2310,652.17
Shares Outstanding (M)171.41171.41171.41
Fair Value$56.77$59.41$62.14
Upside / Downside34.27%40.51%46.98%

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