Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NINGBO HENGSHUAI Co., Ltd. (300969.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.10 - $80.75$54.07
Multi-Stage$27.82 - $30.39$29.08
Blended Fair Value$41.58
Current Price$128.79
Upside-67.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS200.54%0.00%0.360.230.230.230.000.001.820.000.000.00
YoY Growth--59.72%-0.16%0.34%0.00%-100.00%-99.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.59%0.38%0.49%0.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)179.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)147.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.8522.4113.44
Cash Retained (M)147.26147.26147.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.85-22.41-13.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)111.40124.85133.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)88.1988.1988.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.261.421.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.261.421.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.10$54.07$80.75
Upside / Downside-70.42%-58.01%-37.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)179.26190.91203.32216.53230.61245.60252.96
Payout Ratio17.85%32.28%46.71%61.14%75.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.0061.6394.97132.39174.27221.04233.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)55.5056.0256.55
Year 2 PV (M)77.0278.4879.97
Year 3 PV (M)96.6899.46102.29
Year 4 PV (M)114.61119.02123.55
Year 5 PV (M)130.91137.23143.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,978.892,074.472,173.71
Equity Value (M)2,453.602,564.682,679.85
Shares Outstanding (M)88.1988.1988.19
Fair Value$27.82$29.08$30.39
Upside / Downside-78.40%-77.42%-76.41%

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