Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai Zhongzhou Special Alloy Materials Co., Ltd. (300963.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.36 - $15.60$8.43
Multi-Stage$3.72 - $4.07$3.89
Blended Fair Value$6.16
Current Price$18.76
Upside-67.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162014
DPS-5.38%2.47%0.070.060.050.050.050.090.030.000.030.08
YoY Growth--18.36%9.73%7.60%-1.29%-45.03%252.16%0.00%-100.00%-57.77%47.23%
Dividend Yield--0.56%0.80%0.65%0.73%0.28%0.51%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.309.565.74
Cash Retained (M)49.2549.2549.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.30-9.56-5.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.9539.6843.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)357.71357.71357.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.68%8.68%8.68%
Growth Rate5.32%6.32%7.32%
Fair Value$5.36$8.43$15.60
Upside / Downside-71.42%-55.08%-16.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.5281.3586.5091.9797.78103.96107.08
Payout Ratio35.64%46.51%57.38%68.25%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.2737.8449.6362.7777.3793.5799.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.68%8.68%8.68%
Growth Rate5.32%6.32%7.32%
Year 1 PV (M)34.4934.8135.14
Year 2 PV (M)41.2342.0242.81
Year 3 PV (M)47.5348.8950.29
Year 4 PV (M)53.3955.4557.57
Year 5 PV (M)58.8561.7064.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,096.031,149.061,204.13
Equity Value (M)1,331.531,391.941,454.59
Shares Outstanding (M)357.71357.71357.71
Fair Value$3.72$3.89$4.07
Upside / Downside-80.16%-79.26%-78.32%

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