Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinxiang Richful Lube Additive Co., Ltd (300910.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$234.36 - $544.56$510.33
Multi-Stage$81.00 - $88.63$84.75
Blended Fair Value$297.54
Current Price$53.00
Upside461.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS228.75%0.00%1.311.190.410.410.090.000.000.010.060.00
YoY Growth--9.83%187.97%0.22%384.85%2,398.66%-0.99%-75.88%-76.05%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.29%3.02%0.71%1.55%0.22%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)796.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)358.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)438.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)159.3599.5959.76
Cash Retained (M)438.17438.17438.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-159.35-99.59-59.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)278.82338.58378.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)290.98290.98290.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.961.161.30
LTM Dividend per Share1.231.231.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.961.161.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.192.402.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$234.36$510.33$544.56
Upside / Downside342.20%862.89%927.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)796.75848.54903.69962.431,024.991,091.611,124.36
Payout Ratio45.00%54.00%63.00%72.00%81.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)358.58458.24569.35692.97830.25982.451,040.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)426.29430.33434.37
Year 2 PV (M)492.72502.11511.58
Year 3 PV (M)557.88573.90590.22
Year 4 PV (M)621.80645.71670.31
Year 5 PV (M)684.48717.54751.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,785.4421,789.3922,831.76
Equity Value (M)23,568.6224,658.9825,790.10
Shares Outstanding (M)290.98290.98290.98
Fair Value$81.00$84.75$88.63
Upside / Downside52.83%59.90%67.23%

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