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Definitive Analysis

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NanJing Research Institute of Surveying, Mapping & Geotechnical Investigation, Co.Ltd (300826.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.26 - $17.81$6.35
Multi-Stage$8.51 - $9.41$8.95
Blended Fair Value$7.65
Current Price$17.84
Upside-57.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.46%0.00%0.100.180.210.370.000.120.100.030.170.07
YoY Growth---45.27%-13.33%-44.00%35,052.82%-99.10%18.75%220.00%-82.13%154.40%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.63%1.31%1.47%2.68%0.01%0.65%0.55%0.17%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.111.941.17
Cash Retained (M)6.086.086.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.11-1.94-1.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.974.144.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)161.50161.50161.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate0.31%0.31%0.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.26$6.35$17.81
Upside / Downside-81.71%-64.40%-0.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.5515.4015.2415.0914.9414.7915.23
Payout Ratio60.89%66.71%72.53%78.36%84.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.4710.2711.0611.8212.5713.3114.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.31%0.31%0.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)10.1410.2410.34
Year 2 PV (M)10.7710.9911.21
Year 3 PV (M)11.3611.7112.07
Year 4 PV (M)11.9212.4212.93
Year 5 PV (M)12.4613.1013.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,318.511,387.171,458.66
Equity Value (M)1,375.151,445.631,518.99
Shares Outstanding (M)161.50161.50161.50
Fair Value$8.51$8.95$9.41
Upside / Downside-52.27%-49.83%-47.28%

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