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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Compass Technology Development Co., Ltd. (300803.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.40 - $6.41$5.37
Multi-Stage$7.26 - $7.99$7.62
Blended Fair Value$6.50
Current Price$167.13
Upside-96.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.020.020.010.040.070.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--33.57%32.48%-68.11%-49.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.05%0.03%0.13%0.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)330.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)318.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.0241.2724.76
Cash Retained (M)318.50318.50318.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.02-41.27-24.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)252.47277.23293.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)559.01559.01559.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.500.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.500.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.40$5.37$6.41
Upside / Downside-97.37%-96.79%-96.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)330.12326.82323.55320.32317.11313.94323.36
Payout Ratio3.52%20.82%38.11%55.41%72.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.6268.03123.31177.48230.56282.55299.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)62.0662.6963.33
Year 2 PV (M)102.60104.71106.84
Year 3 PV (M)134.71138.87143.12
Year 4 PV (M)159.62166.23173.05
Year 5 PV (M)178.43187.72197.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,421.153,599.303,784.79
Equity Value (M)4,058.574,259.534,468.53
Shares Outstanding (M)559.01559.01559.01
Fair Value$7.26$7.62$7.99
Upside / Downside-95.66%-95.44%-95.22%

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