Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Onechance Tech Crop. (300792.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.13 - $2.99$2.56
Multi-Stage$3.14 - $3.44$3.29
Blended Fair Value$2.92
Current Price$35.00
Upside-91.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.28%0.00%0.140.150.260.340.340.130.220.060.000.00
YoY Growth---12.23%-40.44%-23.26%-0.57%167.13%-41.18%240.00%9,892.89%309.39%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.50%0.80%0.75%0.87%0.58%0.15%1.06%0.31%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.959.975.98
Cash Retained (M)56.0756.0756.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.95-9.97-5.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.1246.1050.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)236.63236.63236.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate10.42%10.42%10.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.13$2.56$2.99
Upside / Downside-93.92%-92.69%-91.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.7378.9378.1477.3676.5975.8278.10
Payout Ratio29.68%41.74%53.81%65.87%77.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.6632.9542.0550.9659.6968.2472.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.42%10.42%10.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)29.5429.8430.14
Year 2 PV (M)33.7934.4935.19
Year 3 PV (M)36.7237.8639.01
Year 4 PV (M)38.5640.1641.81
Year 5 PV (M)39.5241.5843.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)564.25593.64624.23
Equity Value (M)742.39777.56814.10
Shares Outstanding (M)236.63236.63236.63
Fair Value$3.14$3.29$3.44
Upside / Downside-91.04%-90.61%-90.17%

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